We got a Wayze to Go

I attended a reception last night in NYC hosted by a prominent work-out law firm and at the invitation of a good friend. It was one of the few corporate "Holiday" events that I believe will be occurring this year so I seized the opportunity.

The venue was appropriate - not ostentatious - but very nice - and the crowd was about 200 work-out/restructuring specialists. The usual big work out (WO) names were there and a bunch of private equity (PE) folks - and the usual assortment of lawyers, bankers and consultants (like me).

Some of the WO folks were busier than heck - others were seeing a declining market as companies are either liquidating or recovering. What a lot are seeing is a continuing stream of labor entering the unemployed market through continued employee shed. Thank goodness the Senate approved another extension to unemployment benefits!

On the PE side, the folks I spoke with said that they've run out of money to invest - simple as that. Some have not made an investment for a year - they just try to manage redemption calls and liquidity. Other bankers that I spoke with, especially European, are still eyeing the market but remain sceptical. Almost all headcount is frozen for this year and we'll see for next year.

The unemployment numbers will come out Friday and I predict 10.1%. I believe it will be a very subdued consumer Holiday Season - which will depress retailers. The recent reports by GM and Chrysler are great reading - where do they think they are going to pick up this magical new market share? Do you think I am selling my Toyota Prius for a Chrysler/Fiat? Interesting.

So, all in all - while there are proclamations of economic growth - we have to get real - there is still a lot of pain to work through.

Now, the areas that are actually growing (and not through artificial "cash for clunkers" programs) are Asia and the emerging markets. Macquarie is starting 3 new funds in Austria for Eastern Europe investment. Renewable energy continues to be strong.

More on that shortly.